Political analyst Abubakar Turaki has argued that the All Progressives Congress, APC’s control of 31 state governors and millions of members does not automatically guarantee victory in the 2027 general election.
Turaki made the remarks during an appearance on S24 TV on Monday, while analysing the political atmosphere ahead of the 2027 elections and the controversy surrounding the chanting of “On Your Mandate We Shall Stand” during President Bola Tinubu’s presentation of the budget at the National Assembly.
He argued that the President could have simply asked those involved to stop if he was uncomfortable with it.
“If the President does not want this kind of chanting, he could have simply asked them to keep quiet,” Turaki said.
The analyst also recalled the circumstances surrounding former President Goodluck Jonathan’s defeat in the 2015 presidential election, as documented in Jonathan’s book, My Transition Hours, and in Olusegun Adeniyi’s Against the Run of Play.
He recalled that Jonathan enjoyed the support of between 20 and 24 state governors during his re-election campaign but still lost the presidential election, arguing that political control and numerical strength do not necessarily translate into electoral victory.
“Having 31 state governors and almost 13 million APC members does not automatically translate into winning the 2027 election,” he added.
Turaki further alleged that some individuals within the ruling party were working against its interests despite publicly identifying with the APC.
He cited comments attributed to Senator Ali Ndume, who reportedly warned that some politicians wear the APC cap in the morning but work against the party in the evening.
“Senator Ndume made it clear that there are people wearing the APC cap in the morning, but in the evening they are working against the party,” Turaki said.
The political analyst also questioned the internal democratic processes of political parties, recalling controversies surrounding vote counting during party activities.
He said videos showing difficulties with vote counting had raised questions about the conduct of internal party processes.
“I wonder if a full-grown adult cannot count. It is simply arithmetic. We all saw the videos. It cut across all the political parties that conducted their activities,” he said.
Turaki maintained that Nigerians should not assume that the numerical strength of any political party would determine the outcome of the 2027 general election.
He concluded that the forthcoming election would be a significant political contest, urging Nigerians to expect an interesting electoral process.