Renowned history professor Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted U.S. presidential election outcomes for four decades, has made his call for the upcoming November election: Kamala Harris.
Lichtman, often called the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections, has consistently used his unique model, bypassing traditional polls and pundit analysis. His model, which he has employed since 1981, famously predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 win and Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.
Lichtman’s model is based on 13 “keys” that evaluate various factors including the incumbent party’s standing on the economy and foreign policy, the charisma of the challenger, and the presence of major scandals. If five or fewer of these “true/false” keys turn “false,” the incumbent party, this year the Democrats, is expected to win.
For the 2024 race, Lichtman predicts Harris will prevail, highlighting that the Democratic Party is on solid ground with no strong third-party challengers, economic stability, and Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act making an impact. Additionally, there is no significant social unrest, all of which work in favour of the Democratic side, he said.