Transatlantic military organization, NATO would carry out strikes deep inside Russia if Moscow attempted to invade the Baltic states, Estonia’s foreign minister has warned, dismissing suggestions that the region could be quickly overrun.
In an interview with The Telegraph during the Munich Security Conference, Margus Tsahkna said Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are prepared to repel any Russian aggression and would respond with significant counter-attacks on Russian territory.
“We’ll bring the war to Russia and we’ll have deep strikes very far into Russia. We know exactly what to do,” he said.
Tsahkna stressed that Baltic nations have accelerated defence spending and military preparedness amid concerns that Vladimir Putin could test Nato’s resolve following the war in Ukraine. Estonia and its regional allies are now investing up to five per cent of GDP in defence, he noted.
Security analysts have speculated that Russia could attempt a limited land-grab in the Baltics. One recent wargame, organised by German newspaper Die Welt and involving former Nato and German military officials, envisioned Russia rapidly seizing parts of Lithuania within days. The Estonian border town of Narva has also been identified as a potential flashpoint.
However, Tsahkna rejected the notion that the Baltic states would wait for broader Nato intervention after suffering occupation.
“Previous plans were that if Russia comes, Nato will eventually win but by then no Estonians would be left. We are not interested in that kind of plan,” he said. “We cannot let Russia into the Baltic states and only then fight back.”
The Lithuania simulation proved controversial, portraying Russia as achieving its objectives while Nato struggled to respond decisively. In the scenario, the United States declined to invoke Article 5 the alliance’s collective defence clause over fears of escalating into a wider war. Germany, despite stationing a brigade in Lithuania, was depicted as failing to repel advancing Russian forces.
The exercise also suggested Moscow could attempt to justify aggression by fabricating a humanitarian crisis, echoing claims it previously made in relation to Ukraine. In the simulation, Russian troops captured the city of Marijampolė and moved to secure the strategically significant Suwalki Gap.
