The global oil market has lost more than $50 billion worth of crude since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago, with analysts warning that the effects could last for months or even years.
More than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been removed from the global market since the crisis escalated in late February, according to industry data. Analysts describe this as one of the largest energy supply disruptions in modern history.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi recently stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains open following a ceasefire agreement, while Donald Trump expressed optimism that a broader deal to end the conflict could be reached soon.
The scale of the disruption is significant. The volume of lost oil is equivalent to shutting down global aviation demand for 10 weeks, halting all road transport worldwide for 11 days, or leaving the entire global economy without oil for five days.
In regional terms, Gulf Arab countries lost around 8 million barrels per day of crude production in March, comparable to the combined output of major energy companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
Jet fuel exports from key producers including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have also dropped sharply, severely impacting international aviation.
With crude prices averaging around $100 per barrel during the conflict, the lost production translates into roughly $50 billion in revenue. Analysts note this is equivalent to about 1% of Germany’s annual GDP, or the entire economic output of smaller nations such as Latvia or Estonia.
Despite the ceasefire, recovery is expected to be slow. Oil inventories have already dropped significantly, and production outages have reached around 12 million barrels per day since late March.
Experts warn that some oil fields, particularly in Kuwait and Iraq, could take several months to return to normal operations. Damage to refining infrastructure and major energy facilities may take years to fully repair, prolonging the impact on global energy supply.