The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could rise to about N950 per litre in 2026.
Currently, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has fixed its ex-gantry price at N699 per litre, while the retail price at MRS Oil, an authorised distributor, stands at N739 per litre.
In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the CBN based its projection on an assumed average crude oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026. The bank also assumed an average exchange rate of N1,451.63 to the dollar in the fourth quarter of 2025 and N1,400 to the dollar in 2026. These assumptions are supported by expectations of improved foreign exchange market efficiency, stronger capital inflows, and a current account surplus.
The outlook further assumed domestic crude oil production of about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period.
Under these conditions, the CBN expects PMS prices to hover around N950 per litre in 2026. The bank noted that increased private-sector investment, particularly in domestic refining, would support economic growth and help contain energy costs. It added that rising crude production, improved security around oil assets, and expanding refining capacity are expected to improve supply conditions in 2026.
The CBN also projected that headline inflation would slow to 12.94 per cent in 2026, down from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025. The expected moderation was linked to lower food prices and easing PMS costs, driven by increased competition in the midstream sector.
Prices declined after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-gantry rate from N828 to N699 per litre and enforced a pump price of N739 per litre through its partner, MRS Oil. Following the adjustment in mid-December, rival fuel stations reportedly lowered their prices to retain customers.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has also warned that petrol prices could rise to as high as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy reliance on fuel imports. According to the refinery, large-scale local production has helped stabilise the downstream market and reduce price volatility.