International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that artificial intelligence is hitting the global labour market like a “slow-moving tsunami”, with young graduates particularly vulnerable as entry-level jobs come under pressure.
Speaking at a panel on Monday, October 12, Georgieva said the disappearance of routine roles could weaken the traditional route through which young workers gain experience and advance in their careers. “People to worry about, first and foremost, [are] young people that are coming into the labor market,” she said.
“Normally, they would get into these routine, repetitive jobs and then grow up the ranks. But if they’re gone, I don’t think any young person wants to be a barista in a coffee shop as … professional future.” Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who co-chairs the World Bank’s Jobs Council, urged governments to turn employment support used during economic crises into permanent measures for helping young people enter the workforce.
What governments did during the COVID-19 pandemic and, in some cases, the global financial crisis “now has to be thought of not as a crisis measure, but as part of the structural, the menu of structural policies,” he said. Shanmugaratnam called for closer cooperation with businesses and incentives to hire fresh graduates, warning that “the first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand”.
The discussions reflected a growing focus among policymakers on managing AI-related disruption, while ageing populations, particularly in Asia, threaten to reduce the available workforce. World Bank President Ajay Banga estimated that 1.2 billion young people would turn 18 over the next 15 years. He said the private sector, which generates between 75 and 85 per cent of jobs in any country, would need to absorb most of them.
Governments should support that process by developing infrastructure, establishing appropriate policies and reducing investment risks that discourage private capital, he said. “It is private capital that creates jobs,” Banga added. Georgieva said IMF estimates indicated that about 40 per cent of jobs worldwide would eventually be “augmented, downgraded or eliminated” by AI.
Exposure stood at approximately 60 per cent in advanced economies and 23 per cent in low-income countries. However, she cautioned that poorer countries’ lower exposure was “just because AI is further away”. Shanmugaratnam said the pressure was particularly evident in technology-related employment. In the United States, “for the first time in a century, demand for graduates has gone down”, he said, alongside a shrinking wage premium for university degrees. He warned that prolonged difficulties finding work could damage graduates’ skills and confidence. “You lose trust in the future,” he said.
Despite the employment risks, Georgieva said AI-related investment and trade had supported economic growth this year, helping keep global expansion near three per cent despite an energy supply shock. “Love it, hate it, or fear it. It [AI] is here, and we are already seeing the first wave of impact,” she said. She estimated that AI adoption could raise growth by between 0.5 and one percentage point in advanced Asian economies and between 0.2 and 0.8 percentage points in emerging Asian economies.
At the upper end, the gains “would more than offset the loss that comes from aging population”, she added. Shanmugaratnam cautioned that stronger economic growth would not automatically generate sufficient employment. China, India and developing Southeast Asia were “growing quite well, but job creation is weak”, he said, warning that AI “is going to widen that divergence if we are too passive about it”.
However, he said displacement would occur “task by task”, allowing time for governments, employers and educational institutions to respond. “And that gives us time,” he said, stressing the importance of workplace learning and a greater emphasis on applied training in universities.