Nigeria’s banking sector is entering the final stretch of its recapitalisation drive, with lenders stepping up capital actions ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s March 31, 2026, deadline.
Analysts at Proshare say industry activity was subdued in the week ended February 12, as attention shifted from fundraising announcements to regulatory validation and capital confirmation processes.
Capital actions across leading banks
FCMB Group is undergoing capital verification by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to confirm whether it has met the new minimum capital threshold of N500 billion for international banks, according to Proshare analysts.
The group previously secured its national banking licence in 2024 following an oversubscribed public offer and completed another ₦160 billion public offer last year as part of its push toward retaining its international banking licence.
The current verification process is therefore seen as the final regulatory confirmation of compliance. A successful outcome would likely lead to a formal announcement of its continued international operations.
The update places FCMB at the final regulatory checkpoint as the sector prepares for tighter capital standards.
Elsewhere, Sterling Bank has yet to disclose its recapitalisation plan, though analysts expect a rights issue or private placement to close a gap between its current capital of about ₦167 billion and the ₦200 billion requirement.
GTCO Plc completed a ₦10 billion private placement earlier, issuing 125 million shares at ₦80 each to a single investor. Proshare analysts described the move as a proactive step to strengthen capital buffers and support medium-term growth rather than a regulatory necessity. The transaction was seen as a sign of sustained investor confidence and early positioning ahead of tighter industry conditions.
First HoldCo Plc’s unaudited 2025 results highlighted another dimension of the recapitalisation push. A large impairment charge weighed on earnings, underscoring how asset-quality shocks can quickly erode capital buffers. Analysts said the results reinforce the need for early capital planning and stronger governance as regulatory expectations rise.
Mergers, foreign capital and sector consolidation
Market speculation during the week pointed to possible consolidation, including talk of a strategic merger between two tier-1 banks and bank-led investments in Nigeria’s refinery and energy infrastructure. The developments remain unconfirmed but reflect growing interest in diversification and scale.
Across smaller and mid-tier lenders, recapitalisation is increasingly tied to foreign investment and consolidation:
Union Bank has reportedly attracted foreign interest, particularly from the UAE, while awaiting resolution of a legal dispute involving a former core investor.
Keystone Bank is drawing interest from both local and foreign investors, with the possibility of a joint acquisition.
Polaris Bank is expected to pursue investor-led recapitalisation or merge with another tier-2 lender, a move analysts see as supportive of industry consolidation.
Proshare’s Economic and Market Intelligence Unit says the CBN appears open to mergers and acquisitions as a route to build larger and more resilient banks. Domestic investors continue to show interest in distressed lenders, but analysts say foreign partnerships may be needed to meet unencumbered capital requirements.
Fintech competition adds pressure
The CBN’s latest fintech report adds another layer to the recapitalisation story, highlighting the rapid growth of digital finance and the need for regulatory alignment to sustain innovation. For banks, the findings reinforce the need to balance competition from fintechs with partnership opportunities that can expand reach and efficiency.
With less than two months to the deadline, most tier-1 and tier-2 banks are seen as having met revised capital buffers. Tier-3 lenders, however, remain under pressure to secure funding or combine to remain competitive in the post-recapitalisation landscape.
For now, the market is watching regulatory confirmations, including FCMB’s, as the sector approaches one of its most significant capital resets in years.
