Patrick Mahomes’ knee injury could barely have been more symbolic for the Kansas City Chiefs.
The three-time Super Bowl winner was battling to save his team’s season when he was forced off late in Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Moments later, the Chargers clinched victory to seal the Chiefs’ fate. For the first time in 11 seasons, Kansas City will not feature in the NFL play-offs.
Their leader is fallen, their dynasty is crumbling, but during a topsy-turvy season, no one team has emerged as their likely successor.
The Chiefs’ early exit from the play-off race has left this season’s NFL title up for grabs, with several pretenders to the throne.
Why path to AFC Championship is ‘wide open’
Like Kansas City, Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals were eliminated from play-off contention on Sunday, and two-time Most Valuable Player Lamar Jackson could also miss out with the Baltimore Ravens.
The Chiefs knocked the Buffalo Bills out of the play-offs in four of the past five seasons so this could be the year last season’s Most Valuable Player Josh Allen leads the Bills to the AFC Championship and a long-awaited Super Bowl return.
“I’ll tell you who’s really grateful the Chiefs are out, the Buffalo Bills,” said Ben Volin, senior NFL writer at the Boston Globe.
“The Chiefs have been their nemesis for the last five years. Now they don’t have to face them in the play-offs, and maybe the path is wide open for the Bills to finally get to the Super Bowl after all these years of heartbreak. But it has been a topsy-turvy year.”
The Bills have a 10-4 record but are currently sixth in the AFC standings, with the Denver Broncos (12-2) leading the way.
They ended a nine-year play-off drought last season, while the New England Patriots (11-3) and Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) have come from nowhere after each claiming just four wins last season.
After a three-year absence, the Patriots will be back in the post-season in former player Mike Vrabel’s first year as their head coach.
“I wouldn’t say he is the only reason the Patriots have had a remarkable turnaround, but it starts at the top, with Mike Vrabel and the direction he’s setting this franchise in,” Volin added.
“He’s done a tremendous job of instilling a new culture. But [new offensive coordinator] Josh McDaniels deserves credit and Drake Maye, the second-year quarterback, has been phenomenal. He looks like a star, not just in the making, but right now.”
It is no surprise to see the Los Angeles Rams (11-3), who won the 2022 Super Bowl, top of the NFC standings.
But the Chicago Bears (10-4) are set to end a four-year play-off drought under second-year quarterback Caleb Williams and first-year head coach Ben Johnson.
“It does feel like we’re in a snow globe and someone shook it upside down and now you have teams like the Patriots and Bears making it,” said Volin.
“The Bears are another of those teams, like the Patriots, that no one expected at the beginning of the year.
“They’ve collected a lot of talented players with having all those high draft picks over the years, and I think Ben Johnson’s done a really nice job putting it all together.
“I’d say he’s corralled Caleb Williams, kind of contained his worst impulses, so there’s maybe fewer highlight reel plays but more plays that help your team win.”
Whoever qualifies, it will be the first season since 1998 where neither Mahomes, Tom Brady nor Peyton Manning feature in the NFL play-offs.
Mahomes was drafted in 2017 and after becoming Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, he has led the Chiefs to five of the past six Super Bowls.
The earliest a Mahomes team has previously bowed out of title contention has been overtime in the AFC Championship game – effectively a Super Bowl semi-final – so perhaps a Mahomes injury was inevitable.
“The Chiefs have played more football than any other team,” said Schecter. “You add up all those play-off games, it’s like playing an extra season, so you get injuries, you get fatigue.
“And because they’ve always been at the top, they’ve never had a high draft pick, either, so they’ve not been able to build the rest of the team.”
Mahomes has already had surgery after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament and lateral collateral ligament in his left knee, so the 30-year-old could miss the start of next season.
Tight end Travis Kelce, 36, could retire at the end of this season, while defensive tackle Chris Jones turns 32 in July, but since the Chiefs won’t be a play-off team, at least they will have a higher pick than they have been used to at next year’s NFL Draft in April.
“[Head coach] Andy Reid and [defensive coordinator] Steve Spagnuolo are incredible coaches who know exactly how to build a team and sustain success,” Schecter added.
“I just think that certain players might step back. Do people want to continue playing who maybe thought, ‘let’s try and get one more Super Bowl’? Or do they decide to retire now?”
