Here are the countries that could qualify for the round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup tournament.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage is beginning to take shape, with several teams already establishing themselves as favourites to progress to the knockout rounds.
Although the tournament’s expanded format means teams must first navigate the Round of 32, current standings and expert projections provide a clear picture of the countries most likely to remain in contention for a place in the Round of 16.
Based on performances so far, current group rankings and predictions from analysts, here are the two teams from each group that look best placed to progress.
Group A
- Mexico – The co-hosts have won their opening two matches and have already secured qualification. Their defensive solidity and home support make them favourites to top the group.
- South Korea – Despite losing to Mexico, South Korea remain second and are expected to edge out South Africa and Czechia for the other qualification place.
Group B
- Canada – The hosts have impressed, particularly in their emphatic victory over Qatar, and currently lead the group.
- Switzerland – Their experience and four-point haul after two matches make them strong favourites to advance.
Group C
- Brazil – Despite a slow start, the five-time champions remain favourites to recover and win the group.
- Morocco – After their historic run in 2022, Morocco have continued to show they can compete with the world’s elite.
Group D
- United States – Their 4-1 victory over Paraguay underlined their attacking quality and status as group favourites.
- Australia – The Socceroos have made another strong start and are tipped to join the Americans in the knockout rounds.
Group E
- Germany – A 7-1 victory over Curacao highlighted their attacking strength and placed them firmly in control.
- Ivory Coast – The 2023 AFCON champions have begun with a win over Ecuador and look well placed to progress.
Group F
- Sweden – Their 5-1 victory over Tunisia has made them one of the surprise packages of the tournament.
- Netherlands – Although they were held by Japan, the Dutch still possess enough quality to finish second.
Group G
- Belgium – Despite drawing their opener against Egypt, their quality and tournament experience make them favourites to progress.
- Iran – The Asian side have developed into consistent World Cup performers and are capable of edging out Egypt and New Zealand.
Group H
- Spain – European champions and one of the favourites for the title, Spain are expected to top the group despite an opening draw.
- Uruguay – Their experience and quality should prove decisive over Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde.
Group I
- France – Kylian Mbappe and company remain among the favourites to win the tournament and should progress comfortably.
- Norway – Erling Haaland-inspired Norway have started strongly and look capable of joining France in the knockout phase.
Group J
- Argentina – The defending champions have begun impressively and are expected to win the group.
- Austria – Their opening victory over Jordan gives them an early advantage in the race for second place.
Group K
- Colombia – Their victory over Uzbekistan has strengthened their position as favourites.
- Portugal – Despite Portugal being held by DR Congo, their quality should see them finish in the top two.
Group L
- England – One of the tournament favourites, England’s attacking firepower has already been evident.
- Ghana – The Black Stars’ victory over Panama has given them the upper hand in the battle for second place.
With the group stage entering a crucial phase, several traditional powers have strengthened their positions, while teams such as Sweden, Canada and Ghana have emerged as early surprise contenders. Mexico have already secured qualification, while the likes of France, Argentina, Germany and England are expected to follow.
As recent World Cup results have shown, however, the gap between established giants and emerging nations is narrowing, meaning plenty of twists could still lie ahead before the knockout rounds begin.
Experts from Opta and other projections continue to favour the tournament’s traditional heavyweights, but the expanded 48-team format has already produced enough surprises to suggest that no place in the Round of 16 can yet be taken for granted.