The players who have the best chances to finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d’Or have been revealed.
According to Kalshi, the trio of Harry Kane (England/Bayern Munich), Lamine Yamal (Spain/Barcelona) and Kylian Mbappe (France/Real Madrid) have the highest chances.
Rodri (Spain/Barcelona), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Georgia/PSG) and Lionel Messi (Argentina/Inter Miami) are also likely to finish in the top six.
PSG’s Ousmane Dembele is the current holder of the prize and this year’s winner will be announced on October 26 in London, UK.
Chances to finish Top-10 in the 2026 Ballon d’Or:
99% — Kane, Yamal, Mbappe
94% — Rodri
93% — Kvaratskhelia
92% — Messi
86% — Olise
83% — Dembele
72% — Haaland
66% — Fabián Ruiz
38% — Bellingham
31% — Cubarsi
17% — Rice
16% — Neves
11% — Hakimi
10% — Cucurella