A supercomputer, BETSiE, has run its algorithm to predict how the 2023/2024 Premier League title race will play out.
The probability model has projected the title race based on both pre-season expectations and xG earned both for and against during the season.
It also took into account all match results from last season (across all competitions), pre-season results and the current campaign.
After 100,000 simulations, Arsenal were given a 44.9% chance to win the league, while Manchester City’s winning probability stands at 55.1%.
The final projected table sees City get an average of 88.7 points, while the Gunners finished on an average of 87.8 points.
This means the title race went down to less than a single point.
Ahead of this Sunday’s trip to Manchester United, Arsenal remain top of the table, thanks to their 3-0 win over Bournemouth.
But with Manchester City still holding a game in hand, it’s still all to play for.
Pep Guardiola’s men are away to Fulham in Saturday’s early kick-off and could be top before the game at Old Trafford.