As the Premier League season approaches its finale, April could be the defining month for leaders Arsenal and closest challengers Manchester City.
Mikel Arteta’s men are aiming for the club’s first league title since 2004 – and with a nine-point lead and seven games remaining, have destiny in their own hands.
Second-placed City, though, are looking to push them all the way and have a game in hand and experience of getting over the line in this decisive period.
Pep Guardiola’s side, looking to claw back the deficit, can increase the pressure when they host the leaders in a monumental fixture at Etihad Stadium on Sunday, 19 April. And recent history shows this is the month where City excel and Arsenal flounder.
“We need to get a lot of points,” said Guardiola. “We have not been consistent enough in the season. We have dropped points that we should have taken, which is why we are now in the position where we cannot do it differently.
“We have to win every single game.”
Arteta will be desperate to triumph come May, having won only the FA Cup and the Community Shield since taking charge in 2019. Like City, his side have drawn seven games, but they have suffered two fewer defeats.
Arsenal can further extend their lead when hosting Bournemouth in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off, before City face a tricky trip to sixth-placed Chelsea on Sunday.
“The closer we get, the relevance and importance of the match increases,” admitted Arteta, whose side have finished runners-up for the past three seasons.
“[Saturday] is a big day for us. The players know it, the supporters know it.
“It is a 12:30 kick-off, an early kick-off, so get up early, have an early breakfast, bring your lunch and let’s go all together for it because it has to be a big day.”
Out of the regular 10 months of a Premier League season – from August to May – April has been both Manchester City’s best month under Guardiola in terms of win percentage and Arsenal’s worst during Arteta’s tenure.
City did have a better success rate and Arsenal a worse one in the summer months of 2020 during the Covid pandemic, but those were only a handful of games.
It’s no real surprise either that Arsenal recently extended their lead at the top as the opposite is true for March, with it being their best month under Arteta and City’s worst month under Guardiola.
In fact, it’s the only month in which the apprentice Arteta has a higher win percentage in the Premier League than his former managerial master, with the pair having worked together at City from 2016 to 2019.
Guardiola’s side have incredibly had 30 victories in 38 games in April under him, drawing five and losing just three.
They have often dominated opponents at this point in the season too, scoring 102 goals at an impressive rate of 2.7 per game.
City’s recent record is even more impressive, winning 19 and drawing just two of their past 21 games in April since a 2-1 home defeat by Leeds in 2021.
They’ve also scored two or more goals in all but one of those 21 games – the exception being a goalless draw at Manchester United last season – and scored four or more in 10 of them.
Arsenal have lost seven Premier League games in April under Arteta, with five of those defeats in 2021 and 2022.
Since then, the Gunners have lost just two of their past 18 games at this time of year, winning 10 and drawing six.
Those two defeats did prove costly, however, as both a 4-1 loss at City in 2023 and 2-0 home defeat by Aston Villa in 2024 had a significant impact on their title challenge in both campaigns.
Even draws at this crucial stage could be damaging, so the Gunners will be keen to avoid dropping points like they did at this time last year against Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace.
The meeting of the top two next Sunday is likely to be hugely significant in the outcome of this season’s title race.
On paper at least, Arsenal’s two other games at home to mid-table Bournemouth and Newcastle look eminently winnable, while City visit Chelsea and host another Champions League-chasing side Aston Villa on the final day.
But given the form that both rivals have shown under their managers in April, it would be foolish to consider the title race over just yet.